That’s the conclusion reached by respected political forecaster Sam Wang, co-founder of the Princeton Election Consortium, who analyzed the results of 24 polls conducted by Public Policy Polling in 24 different congressional districts across the country.
According to Wang, “PPP surveyed 24 congressional districts currently held by Republicans. They asked voters to choose between their current representative and a generic Democrat (data as PDF). Here are the margins they got, plotted against last November’s election result:”
How should you look at this graph? Wang explains: “In the 2012 elections, Democrats won the national popular vote by 1.5%, but they needed a 7.3% margin to take control. So broadly speaking, opinion would have to swing by about 6% or more for control of the House to become competitive… The key piece of information is the gray zone. If more than half the points are in that gray zone, then that predicts a swing of >6% and a Democratic takeover. Currently, 17 out of 24 points are in the gray zone.”
Everyday South Dakotans are paying a steep price for the GOP shutdown. West river ranchers who can’t get help from furloughed Farm Service Agency employees to help document cattle losses pay the price. Federal contractors and service members at Ellsworth who aren’t drawing a paycheck pay the price. Communities depending on tourism near shuttered National Parks pay the price.
It’s time Congresswoman Noem pay the price too. Let’s do our part to oust Kristi Noem in 2014!